TSLA
TeslaGigafactory manufacturing at scale; Megapack energy storage; Dojo custom silicon.
Last
$391.95
Change
+7.63%
Market cap
$1470.8B
60-day price
Near-term (0-6mo)
Earnings 4/22 — Megapack energy storage deployments (GWh), Dojo chip progress, and any Terafab procurement details. Megapack is the most thesis-relevant business unit (energy storage for grid/data centers).
Mid-term (6-24mo)
Terafab is an ambitious attempt to build an in-house fab — if real, it's a direct substrate-constraint play. Megapack production scale (~10 GWh/yr target) addresses grid-scale storage. But auto remains 80%+ of revenue.
Catalysts
- Q1 earnings 4/22 — 6 days away
- Terafab equipment procurement details
- Megapack deployment volumes
- Dojo custom silicon updates
Risks
- Terafab may be vaporware until proven otherwise
- Cybertruck sales inflation from Musk entities is a governance red flag
- Auto business faces margin pressure and demand uncertainty
- Valuation at $392 requires massive execution on non-auto businesses
Options flags
earnings_soon · Apr 16, 2026
Earnings on 2026-04-22 (5d out). Expect elevated IV into print; avoid buying OTM monthlies the day before.iv_rank_high · Apr 16, 2026
+7.63% today. IV likely elevated. Wait for pullback or sell a call spread instead of buying.monthly_liquid · Apr 16, 2026
Monthly Apr 16, 2026 chain likely liquid. Prefer ATM/ITM-20 over OTM to force discipline.