ASML

Near-term (0-6mo)

Just reported Q1 — strong revenue, but the supply chain challenge admission is critical: it means even ASML cannot build EUV tools fast enough. High-NA EUV (0.55 NA) ramp is the next constraint.

Mid-term (6-24mo)

Monopoly on EUV lithography (100% market share) is the ultimate substrate moat. Each High-NA EUV tool costs ~$380M and only ~20 will ship in 2026. Every advanced node chip on Earth goes through ASML tools. Decade-low valuation gap to US peers suggests potential re-rating.

Catalysts

• Q1 earnings just released — digest supply chain detail
• High-NA EUV order book growth
• Next earnings 7/15 for H2 guidance
• Decade-low valuation gap as potential re-rating catalyst

Risks

• China export restriction impact on DUV revenue
• Supply chain constraints limit tool shipment growth
• Geopolitical risk around Dutch export controls