NVDA
NVIDIAStill the training standard; Blackwell ramp.
Last
$198.87
Change
+1.23%
Market cap
$4833.5B
60-day price
Near-term (0-6mo)
Earnings 5/20 — Blackwell revenue ramp rate, H200/B100 mix, and CoWoS allocation from TSMC are the physical metrics. GB200 NVL72 rack shipment volume matters more than ASP.
Mid-term (6-24mo)
Rubin architecture (2027) will require next-gen CoWoS and HBM4 — substrate dependencies deepen. Software moat (CUDA) is real but thesis says watch the physical constraints more closely.
Catalysts
- Q1 FY27 earnings 5/20
- Blackwell supply ramp data
- GB200 NVL72 rack shipments to hyperscalers
Risks
- Custom ASIC competition from AVGO/GOOGL/AMZN eroding training monopoly
- CoWoS allocation becoming zero-sum with AMD/AVGO
- China export restriction revenue loss
Options flags
earnings_soon · Apr 16, 2026
Earnings on 2026-05-20 (33d out). Expect elevated IV into print; avoid buying OTM monthlies the day before.monthly_liquid · Apr 16, 2026
Monthly Apr 16, 2026 chain likely liquid. Prefer ATM/ITM-20 over OTM to force discipline.