AMD

MI300/MI400 gaining hyperscaler share.

Last

$258.12

Change

+1.20%

Market cap

$420.8B

60-day price

Near-term (0-6mo)

Earnings 5/5 — MI300X revenue run rate (reportedly $7B+ annualized), MI400 ramp timeline, and TSMC CoWoS allocation are the key physical metrics.

Mid-term (6-24mo)

MI450 could be the inflection point if it narrows the CUDA software gap and gets meaningful CoWoS allocation. Success depends on TSMC advanced packaging capacity — same constraint as NVDA.

Catalysts

Q1 earnings 5/5
MI450 launch details and benchmarks
Hyperscaler design win announcements

Risks

CoWoS allocation still favors NVDA
CUDA ecosystem lock-in limits software switching
Valuation stretched on best-run-since-2005 narrative

Options flags

earnings_soon · Apr 16, 2026

Earnings on 2026-05-05 (18d out). Expect elevated IV into print; avoid buying OTM monthlies the day before.

monthly_liquid · Apr 16, 2026

Monthly Apr 16, 2026 chain likely liquid. Prefer ATM/ITM-20 over OTM to force discipline.

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