LRCX

Near-term (0-6mo)

Earnings 4/22 — HBM etch tool orders, DRAM/NAND equipment WFE, and any Terafab-related orders. High-bandwidth memory production requires significantly more etch steps than standard DRAM.

Mid-term (6-24mo)

HBM4 will require even more etch steps per stack (16+ layers vs. 12 for HBM3E). Every AI GPU needs HBM — Lam's etch tools are in the critical path. Also benefits from gate-all-around transistor architecture at 2nm.

Catalysts

• Q1 earnings 4/22 — 6 days away
• HBM tool order growth
• Terafab equipment procurement

Risks

• China WFE revenue at risk from export controls
• Memory cycle timing
• Valuation sensitivity to WFE growth rate